War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned 'Sham' Election.

Election ballots in Myanmar
Myanmar's military is holding a phased election over the coming weeks.

The nation is holding an election in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker TΓΌrk stated.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr TΓΌrk noted in a statement, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".

John Cooley
John Cooley

A professional gambler and analyst with over a decade of experience in casino gaming, specializing in roulette systems and probability theory.