A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
